近日，RAM執行董事暨固定收益主管Michael Frearson受邀出席澳洲財經節目《Fear & Greed》，與主持人就固定收益及私募信貸投資中的底層資產風險展開討論。
私募信貸細分領域差異
Michael指出，私募信貸市場涵蓋眾多細分領域，各策略在收益率、風險水準及流動性方面存在顯著差異。
相對低風險的策略主要包括有優先順序抵押貸款，結構清晰、安全性較高。而較高風險領域則涉及企業貸款、房地產開發貸款及離岸私人債務等，潛在收益雖高，但波動性和違約風險相應上升。
他強調，投資者不能僅關注表層收益率，而應穿透產品結構，明確資金底層的抵押品質量。
澳洲信貸市場韌性
澳洲信貸市場在過去數十年間經歷了兩輪重大壓力測試：1990年代初期經濟衰退及2008年全球金融危機。
Michael回顧資料後發現，儘管期間貸款逾期率有所上升，但主要銀行抵押貸款組合及投資級證券化信貸產品的實際風險始終保持在極低水準。
他指出，即使在極端壓力環境下，作為全國最大資產類別及銀行資產核心的住房抵押貸款市場，依然展現出極高的資產品質和穩定性。這一結論表明，信貸資產的安全性關鍵在於底層抵押資產的選擇。
RAM策略框架
RAM的策略路徑始終保持清晰且一致：聚焦澳洲第一註冊住宅抵押貸款，嚴格控制貸款價值比（LVR），堅持高度多元化的資產配置。
在當前利率維持高位、宏觀前景仍存在不確定性的背景下，Michael也向投資者分享了幾點值得關注的核心思路：
第一，關注底層資產，而非僅看表面收益。投資者要深入理解資金最終投向何種資產、對應何種抵押品，以及其在資本結構中的優先順序。
第二，優先考慮本土市場、有擔保且結構清晰的信貸策略。尤其對於以穩定現金流為目標的配置型資金而言，上述資產結構通常更有助於提升組合穩定性。
第三，重視浮動利率帶來的防禦屬性。在利率高位運行的環境下，浮動利率收入結構有助於緩解通脹對實際收益的影響，並提升投資組合對利率週期的適應能力。
點擊此處收聽完整採訪：
Sean Aylmer:
Welcome to Fear & Greed Q&A, where we ask and answer questions about business investing, economics, politics and more. I’m Sean Aylmer. Over the past few years, Australian investors have poured billions of dollars into things like private credit and income strategies. But as rates have risen and global credit markets have come under pressure, some investors are perhaps panic selling, suggesting they may not quite know the true value of the underlying asset of the investments they hold. My guest today is Michael Frearson, Head of Fixed Income at Real Asset Management, RAM. RAM works with Blue Chip Communications, which is a great supporter of this podcast. Michael has spent more than two decades in fixed income and says the key to investing now is to know what assets underpin what you’re holding. Remember, this is general information only and you should always seek advice tailored to your circumstances before making investment decisions. Michael, welcome to Fear & Greed Q&A.
Michael Frearson:
Well, thank you, Sean. It’s great to be here with you to discuss this.
Sean Aylmer:
So, for many of us investing in fixed income, that term fixed income, it’s kind of this black box. But I think what we need from you, what I’m wondering from you, is really a 101 on the importance of understanding what you’re actually investing in, what the underlying asset is.
Michael Frearson:
Yeah, thanks, Sean. It’s a very broad question because it is a very broad asset class. I’ll try to demystify it for you. Effectively, when you’re investing in fixed income, you’re lending money to someone. If it’s a bond, it’s just literally you’re lending money to that company. If it’s a loan, you’re lending money to an individual or a company and they promise to pay you back in accordance with the terms of that loan. So, at its simplest, it’s the investors giving their capital to someone with the hope that they get it paid back and get paid the promised income stream. So, within fixed income, there’s a very broad range of different types of fixed income. There’s obviously fixed rate fixed income, which promises to pay you a fixed rate of return, or there’s floating rate fixed income, which goes up and down with movements in the cash rate. But the two key risks investors face in all fixed income is either interest rate risk or credit risk. The other key difference is there’s public market credit exposure, which are things like bonds, which trade in the over-the-counter market or on the Australian Stock Exchange, or there is private market fixed income, which is a growing asset class.
Sean Aylmer:
That’s actually a very clear explanation of what’s going on here. So that’s good. Well, let’s talk about private credit and income funds over the past few years. We’ve heard a lot about them. What are people buying? What have people been buying? And where are they finding themselves at the moment?
Michael Frearson:
So, private credit is, again, a very broad asset class with a range of different sub-sectors within private credit. So, in Australia, investors have been attracted to both the high returns available from private credit, as well as the capital stability, given the floating rate assets. So that means they don’t go up and down when interest rates go up. Given the property obsessed culture we are part of, the majority of private credit domestically is backed by property. And then it can be a wide range of different types of property. So, it can be commercial property, it could be residential mortgages. The other key area of domestic private credit is corporate private credit, where large non-banks lend to both small and large corporates in either a secured or unsecured loan. But then that’s a different risk profile given it has the business risk. It’s not just secured by private assets.
Sean Aylmer:
Okay, so let’s take the next step then. So, I’m with you so far. That all sounds quite sensible and you get your return. Fantastic in good times, I’m sure, and particularly in low interest rate environments. But of course, what we’re seeing now are rising interest rate environments, fears of a slowdown in economic growth. How does that affect the different sides of the market, particularly the private market I’m talking about here. And how should investors think about that when they’re kind of, we’re all for long-term investing at Fear & Greed and what we don’t want to be, if things don’t look good right now, how should investors play their portfolio?
Michael Frearson:
Sure. I guess the other key sub-sector, which I didn’t mention, was offshore private credit. So that’s where you’re lending a lot of money to offshore groups, generally into corporate type loans and into venture capital type debt. So, like at the moment with the risk aversion increasing due to the oil price shock and the uncertainty, risk aversion has increased. So, at the moment, investors are a bit fearful, and they have been indiscriminately selling off some of their assets, particularly earlier in March, but the market has started to recover nicely over the last few weeks. So, some of that sentiment impacting the listed prices is more sentiment than any fundamental credit concerns with the outlook for the domestic market. But where we believe that investor concerns are warranted is for the groups that have offshore private credit exposure in their portfolios, given there are some more serious concerns about that offshore corporate private credit than the domestic private credit market.
Sean Aylmer:
Okay, so sort of reading between the lines there. In a sense, because our residential property market here is so strong and has been and will remain that way, but the offshore credit market is slightly more problematic. What should investors be focusing on then? Is it about diversification? Is it about trying to have a bias towards one, not the other? How should they think about it?
Michael Frearson:
Yeah, obviously it’s very important to have a well-diversified portfolio in any fixed income portfolio, given the key risk is that credit risk. So, I think rule number 1 is to really understand what is under the hood and what’s driving the returns on that particular investment. So, you need to know what risk factors you’re exposed to, be it either property development, be it offshore, or be it domestic simple securitised mortgages.
Sean Aylmer:
Okay, so you understand that, but in terms of your portfolio, do you need a bit of all or do you need a bias towards one, not the others?
Michael Frearson:
At RAM, we have an ASX-listed note called RAM Secured Income Notes. We also have the Real Income Fund. Both of these investments are backed by the same quality of assets. At RAM, we bias the portfolio to secured residential first mortgages that are domestic only. They are 100% Australian first registered mortgages with a low LVR. There’s a lot of security in the portfolio. We have a very diversified portfolio. Step number 1, we have security and that comes to the capital stability. The other thing we bias the portfolio is to deliver regular income for our investors. We have over 7,000 individual home loans, which provide that regular monthly income to investors. And it also means there’s negligible credit risk investors are exposed to. The key thing in the current environment, besides focusing on quality, is to bias the portfolio to floating rate. So floating rate income streams will benefit if the RBA raises the interest rates again next week, like the market currently expects them to.
Sean Aylmer:
Okay. If things get worse, unemployment rises, interest rates rise, we have falling house prices. How concerned are you about that?
Michael Frearson:
We’re not concerned about that at all in the current environment, given both the quality of our particular portfolio, our 90-day arrears in our portfolio are only 0.22% across the entire 7,000 loans. So that compares very favourably compared to the major banks, for example, which are 0.8 to 1% in the 90-day arrears. But additionally, if we look through history to understand how different investors behave during times of extreme market conditions, there’s been two key tests domestically which have impacted the Australian credit markets. So, during the global financial crisis, there was a lot of funding uncertainty. There was a big spike in home loan arrears, but that didn’t follow through to any losses across the major banks or in any of the investment grade securitised credit investments. But if we go back further to the 1992 recession, that provides some of the most meaningful data and comparisons we have. During the 1992 recession, there was a spike in unemployment. Interest rates were very high before they fell. But during that period, I think the loss rate on the ANZ portfolio was 11 basis points across their mortgage book. The loss rate on their commercial property book was 23.2%. Very big difference. And APRA has assumed hard lending risk for the industry of 18 basis points. So, it highlights that even under very severe stress, the mortgage market, which is the largest asset class in the country, backed in all of the banks’ balance sheets, it’s actually very high quality and very stable during times of extreme stress.
Sean Aylmer:
So, it means that the moral of the story, and we are not an investment podcast, always go to a financial advisor and get your own advice for your own circumstances, but investing in fixed income in residential property in Australia is a relatively safe bet. I say relatively because that we’re comparing to offshore and other places, but you know, 11 basis points in a recession, that ain’t bad.
Michael Frearson:
Yeah, thanks, Sean. But that’s also conditional on having a well-diversified portfolio and low LVR. So obviously there’s much greater risk if you lend at 100%.
Sean Aylmer:
Yeah, of course. Michael, thanks for talking to Fear & Greed.
Michael Frearson:
Great. Thank you, Sean.
Sean Aylmer:
That was Michael Frierson, Head of Fixed Income at Real Asset Management. Remember, this is general information only and you should seek advice tailored to your circumstances before making investment decisions. I’m Sean Aylmer and this is Fear & Greed Q&A.
