{"id":31713,"date":"2024-09-03T01:12:26","date_gmt":"2024-09-03T01:12:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ramgroup.com\/in-the-media-zh-hant\/the-next-few-months-are-going-to-be-painful-for-australians-heres-how-you-can-invest-your-way-out-of-it\/"},"modified":"2025-02-24T03:32:43","modified_gmt":"2025-02-24T03:32:43","slug":"the-next-few-months-are-going-to-be-painful-for-australians-heres-how-you-can-invest-your-way-out-of-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ramgroup.com\/zh-hant\/in-the-media-zh-hant\/the-next-few-months-are-going-to-be-painful-for-australians-heres-how-you-can-invest-your-way-out-of-it\/","title":{"rendered":"The next few months are going to be painful for Australians. Here’s how you can invest your way out of it"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Real Asset Management’s Michael Frearson argues that we’ll see the full impact of rate hikes in coming months. Here’s how he’s investing.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The interest rate cycle is finally starting to change, with the US Federal Reserve tipped to see its first cut in September. As its peers start to cut, Australia is expected to hold for at least the remainder of 2024 and push the trigger next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real Asset Management\u2019s Head of Fixed Income, Michael Frearson<\/a>, believes that the next three to six months will be the toughest the Australian economy has experienced in some time as we finally see the full impact of those rate hikes come through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s little left in the way of consumer household savings, wages growth is finally slowing and unlike the past where China\u2019s imports of our resources provided a buffer, China is clearly experiencing its own slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The interest rate cycle is finally starting to change, with the US Federal Reserve tipped to see its first cut in September. As its peers start to cut, Australia is expected to hold for at least the remainder of 2024 and push the trigger next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real Asset Management\u2019s Head of Fixed Income, Michael Frearson<\/a>, believes that the next three to six months will be the toughest the Australian economy has experienced in some time as we finally see the full impact of those rate hikes come through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s little left in the way of consumer household savings, wages growth is finally slowing and unlike the past where China\u2019s imports of our resources provided a buffer, China is clearly experiencing its own slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But while the outlook may look somewhat subdued, it\u2019s all good timing to bolster your Australian fixed income portfolio and Frearson shared how he is managing for the outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The peak of the rates cycle and what comes next<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been clear for some time now that we\u2019ve hit a global peak in interest rates and the next step is likely to be down. New Zealand has already started, while the US is expected to see its first cut as soon as September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Closer to home, there have been mixed views on whether the Reserve Bank has another hike in it. Frearson thinks not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe currently expect them to cut in February, but that is always dependent on the data,\u201d he says.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

He expects credit risks to remain elevated across the period of transition from tightening to easing, and notes, \u201cthe longer rates stay higher, the greater the likelihood of further problems in the real economy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFixed rate bonds should benefit as rates fall; however, the longer end of the curve has already started to price that in,\u201d says Frearson, noting that this means we shouldn\u2019t expect a huge uplift in these assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to floating rate assets, he expects yield to come down slightly and \u201cwe expect credit spreads to remain relatively stable in the mid-2% range.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soft landing ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the elevated risk, Frearson doesn\u2019t fear a repeat of 2022\u2019s sharp selloff in bonds and equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe risk of a moderate recession is increasing, and no one is expecting a significant drop off in economic activity,\u201d he says, anticipating a soft landing ahead.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

He points out the sharp selloff during 2022 was linked to a sudden change in the path of interest rates, when markets had largely priced in consistent expectations for stable rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDuring that period, a lot of people discovered they didn\u2019t have defensive portfolios because they weren\u2019t looking at the duration risk on fixed income,\u201d Frearson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those portfolios, like Real Asset Management’s Australian Diversified Fixed Interest and Credit SMA<\/a>, that still offered a positive return in this period typically had overweight positions to floating rate credit and were underweight duration. This reflects RAM\u2019s barbell approach to portfolio construction which blends floating rate credit with high quality fixed rate bonds and actively managing subsector exposure across the portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Managing fixed income for a changing rates cycle<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yields are at their most attractive point in 15 years, and with the view that an easing cycle is approaching, Frearson has been adding duration to his Australian portfolio. His portfolio is currently sitting at around 1.1 years duration. To put it in perspective, there was very little duration in the portfolio over a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve been progressively adding to our duration positioning due to both the more attractive value on offer \u2013 Australian government bond yields are above 4% – and our view that rates are likely to fall, and we will benefit from some attractive fixed rate exposure,\u201d says Frearson.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Adjusting the duration is a key tool Frearson uses to enhance returns in different periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIn the near term, we continue to favour floating rate credit in our portfolios via subordinated debt and capital securities because we continue to see the potential for rates volatility later this year,\u201d Frearson says.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe relative value remains attractive in subordinated securities issued by very high credit quality banks and yield to maturity is still very attractive in the 6.5-7.5% range.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He expects the increased duration in the portfolio to provide a tailwind as interest rate easing commences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frearson focuses on the investment grade end of the listed market so has been able to avoid deteriorating segments, such as the smaller end of the building industry, where there have been defaults in construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is expecting stability in credit spreads and points out that spreads have rallied strongly in senior debt, subordinated debt and capital securities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cCapital securities on a relative basis continue to be attractively valued compared to those more senior structures,\u201d says Frearson.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Diversification as an ongoing support in times of volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Diversification is also critical regardless of the market cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou need diversification across sectors because one of the biggest risks is drawdowns from credit losses,\u201d says Frearson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The RAM Australian Diversified Fixed Interest and Credit SMA, which has won four IMAP Awards for Australian Fixed Interest managed accounts, has exposure to over 800 different individual securities \u2013 not just to offer a variety of drivers and returns, but also to protect the portfolio from company-specific credit risks and portfolio drawdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, Frearson views large banks and diversified financials as attractive additions to a portfolio. Capital notes from Westpac, Commonwealth Bank and NAB are amongst the top five holdings in the portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concerns that plague equity investors around valuations and future profitability of big Australian banks are not something that keeps Frearson awake at night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cWe invest higher in the capital structure in securities which provides certainty as to the income stream, when the call date and maturity date of the investment is. It\u2019s not influenced by movements and valuations of banks equity and there isn\u2019t the same risk to distributions,\u201d he says.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

He also points out that Real Asset Management\u2019s credit score system continues to rank the bank credit as very high quality and they have strong balance sheets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest risks in fixed income and how to manage them<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Beyond this outlook, Frearson reminds investors that the biggest risks involved in fixed income investments are default risk and illiquidity. Being in illiquid and non-transparent investments can be a risky strategy as we move to the tail-end of the rates cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIt\u2019s my advice to keep things simple and focus on quality income streams in transparent investment grade portfolios. If you don\u2019t understand what you are buying or what is in the fund, you probably shouldn\u2019t be buying it,\u201d he says.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Real Asset Management’s Michael Frearson argues that we’ll see the full impact of rate hikes in coming months. Here’s how he’s investing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"post-type":[],"class_list":["post-31713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-in-the-media-zh-hant"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe next few months are going to be painful for Australians. 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