{"id":28451,"date":"2020-08-21T05:34:00","date_gmt":"2020-08-21T05:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ramgroup.com\/the-future-of-property\/"},"modified":"2024-08-13T07:46:01","modified_gmt":"2024-08-13T07:46:01","slug":"the-future-of-property","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ramgroup.com\/zh-hant\/in-the-media-zh-hant\/the-future-of-property\/","title":{"rendered":"The future of property"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

From bricks and mortar retail to the future of office usage, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a disruptor to Australian real estate investment trusts (AREITS).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, what is unknown is whether the pandemic will be a temporary disruption that will eventually lead back to normalcy or a catalyst for a transition into permanent change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted every facet of our day-to-day lives: non-essential office workers have been working from home, and although essential retailers like grocers have continued, many other retailers and entertainment venues closed, leaving once densely-packed shopping centres as ghost towns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, not all property was created equal and different sectors have been impacted in different ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OFFICE SPACE<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Will Gray, head of real estate at Real Asset Management, said that commercial offices had not seen any disruptive elements impacting it \u2013 apart from hot-desking and open-plan offices \u2013 for the last five to seven years. However, this had abruptly changed with the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCOVID-19 has come along, it\u2019s changing everything and we don\u2019t know what the trends are going to be in the future,\u201d Gray said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat I do know is that the downsizing that everyone has been talking about isn\u2019t exactly the trend that we expect to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOffices are going to need more space and there\u2019s going to be a greater emphasis on the ability to maintain social distancing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Janine Yoong, Principal Global Investors portfolio manager, said COVID-19 had created questions around the long-term sustainability of office demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith so many companies working from home, as well as companies like Google who are extending that to the middle of 2021 for their employees, there\u2019s a question about how much office space do corporations actually need,\u201d Yoong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut at the same time the flip side of the argument is that workspace density has increased tremendously in the last 10 years, so we\u2019ve squeezed more and more workers into a small space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat\u2019s happened is with COVID-19, you now need to have social distancing and increase the amount of space per worker so that\u2019s going to offset some of the weaker demand from work from home.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paul Meierdierck, LaSalle Investment Management managing director and portfolio manager, said we were at the early stages of a transformation in which companies would reimagine how they used real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat starts with them harnessing the behaviours of working from home during this pandemic and that it will further ingrain remote working as a tool to attract and retain talent, reduce carbon footprint and control costs,\u201d Meierdierck said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt doesn\u2019t mean every single company is going to 100% work from home\u2026 some occupiers by nature of their business need to have people in the office more.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grant Berry, SG Hiscock director and portfolio manager, said offices were the core of business culture as they were the place where you need to go to mentor staff and connect with clients.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe social distancing argument is positive in the short-term in that it stems the densification of offices,\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOffices have got more and more jammed so it\u2019s a little bit of a pushback from that, however, I would challenge that argument a little as social distancing is very much a transitional phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re unlikely to be living with COVID forever, you still have to get to work and people are probably going to have more challenges with public transport.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Berry expected people would still want an element of working from home in the future and predicted an increase of 10% of people working from home going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a geographic perspective, there was significant pressure on effective central business district (CBD) office rents in Sydney and Melbourne where rents had effectively doubled over the last five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSub-lease vacancy is the key metric we are focusing on at the moment and we can see that starting to gather pace, which could lead to a meaningful correction,\u201d said Steve Bulloch, PGIM Real Estate managing director and head of Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSome non-CBD markets in Sydney may hold up relatively well, particularly those where rents are at historically large spreads to the CBD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDeclining corporate profits and structural themes like employees wanting to work close to home also support this theme.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WINNERS AND LOSERS<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yoong said it was difficult to look at AREITs as one broad group, as sectors perform differently based on environmental circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are certain stocks that are attractive, I wouldn\u2019t say you can look at the entire sector and buy an index, because there are divergent stories within the space,\u201d Yoong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat COVID-19 has done is actually polarised a lot of sectors, so you\u2019re going to have to drill down to a sector level.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail was an example of this, although it was already struggling prior to the pandemic, it had now been put in an even worse position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRetail was already under pressure from online retail, so with COVID-19 and related lockdowns, it has accelerated the penetration for online retail, meanwhile physical shops haven\u2019t been able to open,\u201d Yoong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s put added pressure onto retail AREITs and the tenants are either covered by the code of conduct, which requires the landlord to provide some rental relief or the tenants are just not in a position to pay rent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since April, there had been tenants withholding rent which had created cashflow pressure within the retail space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s also questions about future leases \u2013 where rents are going to get set and how that relationship is going to go moving forward,\u201d Yoong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you flip to the polar opposite, industrial is a beneficiary, from the growth in online retail you\u2019re seeing more retailers increase their online offering, so industrial AREITs are a benefit of that trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bulloch agreed that industrial property remained the favoured asset class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe pandemic has accelerated several themes that were already playing out, including online shopping and we think strong e-commerce locations will continue to do well,\u201d Bulloch said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gray said tourism-based assets had been impacted, because of a significant burden on income due to its inability to trade and operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s an area that will bounce back strongly post-COVID-19 but it might take some time once international travel and mobility comes back up,\u201d Gray said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supermarket-based retail had also performed strong during the pandemic, showing resiliency when previously it was facing significant disruptive elements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSupermarket-based retail is not your large Westfield-type enclosed shopping malls where you dwell on a weekend,\u201d Gray said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s more your local neighbourhood Coles, Woolworths or IGA that typically also has a pharmacy, medical centre, bakery and butcher. Those smaller supermarket-based shopping centres are located in every one of our suburbs around the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DIRECT V LISTED AREITS<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Investing in property through AREITs was not the only option investors had and Bulloch said direct property offered a purer exposure to real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt also typically provides the ability to have a longer-term focus, as REITS tend to be more focused on short-term results,\u201d Bulloch said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe other major advantage is that REITs are usually active buyers only when acquisitions are accretive \u2013 that is, when they have a low cost of capital and\/or are trading at a premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith asset prices likely to correct further in the next year, it will be difficult for the REITs to take advantage of the better opportunities, particularly given the significant dry powder available in the unlisted market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHaving said that, with valuations yet to change significantly for many forms of physical real estate, the significant discounts to net tangible assets that some of the REITs are trading at, suggests they may be relatively attractive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GLOBAL OPTIONS<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Global REITs also provided an alternative to AREITS, providing an advantage by gaining access to sectors that were either unavailable or in limited supply in the Australian market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Bedingfield, Quay Global Investors portfolio manager, said the Australian market was dominated by office, retail, industrial and some residential development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Quay Global Real Estate fund had won Money Management\u2019s<\/em> Fund Manager of the Year 2020 Award for global property securities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen you think about the current environment, two of those asset classes \u2013 office and retail \u2013 are very challenged right now,\u201d Bedingfield said.
Although there were smaller sectors like storage and healthcare, the choices outside the major asset classes were stark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you stick to the current market, you\u2019d have to pay through the teeth to buy industrial, which by every metric is so expensive, notwithstanding the positive themes,\u201d Bedingfield said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe beauty about being offshore is that you can fish around asset classes that aren\u2019t as readily available here in Australia.\u201d
That included sectors like senior living, hospitals, nursing facilities, self-storage, data-storage \u2013 all of which could be available in Australia but on a smaller scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OUTLOOK<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bulloch said Australia was currently facing significant headwinds as many of our key economic and real estate drivers were under pressure, which included factors such as population growth, employment, housing, education and tourism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSome of this is yet to fully hit property prices due to the stimulus measures and supportive banks, therefore we see more downside to valuations,\u201d Bulloch said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHowever, we expect Australia will bounce back reasonably strongly when the health crisis is under control because we think it will still look relatively attractive to foreign capital and many of the key drivers will return.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bedingfield said it was important to stay focused on buying value and keep a long-term vision to the portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s pretty easy to pile all your money into those sectors doing well and feel like you\u2019re going to be safe for a while, but you have to pay up big-time to get into those sectors,\u201d Bedingfield said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are other sectors that have interesting longer-term opportunities and you just have to grit your teeth and accept real estate is set up to be a long-term investment \u2013 you\u2019re not supposed to be trading all the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re just trying to find opportunities that we think in five years\u2019 time, we are going to look back on as great buying opportunities during the pandemic.\u201d
Yoong said valuation dispersion had increased since COVID-19 started and defensive sectors like industrial and long-leased assets were trading at a premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe went into COVID-19 being positioned to the defensive with a structural growth story, so industrials had a structural growth story there that was being supported by online penetration,\u201d Yoong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRetail and office are more of a challenge and we\u2019ve been underweight in those sectors, but we continue to assess it because everything has an appropriate price.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Berry said there\u2019s \u201ccertainly uncertainty\u201d out there in the current economic environment but it was still a good opportunity to invest in REITS at this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have seen quite a sell-off in March because of the uncertainty with what\u2019s happening with tenants and things of that nature,\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut having said when you look at the implied fall on some of the assets, it\u2019s actually thrown up some interesting opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the situation was fluid and continuously evolving, Berry said there was past pandemics, particularly in Asia, that showed a roadmap to a functional recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have seen a snapshot of that already in retail, for example Melbourne is going through a second wave at the moment, but when things opened up, we saw foot traffic return to retail assets in a meaningful way,\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith over 90% of their stores back open, foot traffic was back up to 86%, while companies saw foot traffic back up 110% on the same month as prior year.\u201d
Gray said investors would want to put their money into real estate because bonds are so low, debt is obviously cheap, and the cash rate was at a historical low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhere else can you get a stabilised yield outcome where it\u2019s perceived to be relatively safe and managed by specialists?\u201d Gray said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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